{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "updated": "2026-05-10",
  "methodology": "Country-level conflict scaffold. Status distinguishes countries where fighting is happening on territory from outside belligerents and lower-intensity hostilities. This is not a legal determination of armed-conflict status or statehood.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "cfr-global-conflict-tracker",
      "label": "Global Conflict Tracker",
      "publisher": "Council on Foreign Relations",
      "url": "https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "Country and conflict summaries for major ongoing conflicts and crisis risks."
    },
    {
      "id": "cfr-conflicts-watch-2026",
      "label": "Conflicts to Watch in 2026",
      "publisher": "Council on Foreign Relations",
      "url": "https://www.cfr.org/reports/conflicts-watch-2026",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "Preventive Priorities Survey results for conflicts likely to worsen or affect U.S. interests in 2026."
    },
    {
      "id": "irc-watchlist-2026",
      "label": "Emergency Watchlist 2026",
      "publisher": "International Rescue Committee",
      "url": "https://www.rescue.org/uk/watchlist",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "Humanitarian-crisis watchlist highlighting conflict-affected countries."
    },
    {
      "id": "rulac-conflicts",
      "label": "RULAC conflicts database",
      "publisher": "Geneva Academy",
      "url": "https://www.rulac.org/browse/conflicts",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "Legal classification project for international and non-international armed conflicts."
    },
    {
      "id": "cfr-iran-network",
      "label": "Iran's Regional Armed Network",
      "publisher": "Council on Foreign Relations",
      "url": "https://www.cfr.org/articles/irans-regional-armed-network",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "Overview of Iran-linked armed groups and regional relationships."
    },
    {
      "id": "ap-uae-hormuz-attack-2026",
      "label": "US tries to force open the Strait of Hormuz as the UAE comes under attack",
      "publisher": "Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-ceasefire-negotiations-strait-a4857f28d9b47e0170b65ced19451a25",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "AP report on UAE air defenses engaging Iranian missiles and drones, Fujairah oil-facility damage, and fighting around the Strait of Hormuz."
    },
    {
      "id": "ap-gulf-drones-ceasefire-2026",
      "label": "Iran responds to US ceasefire proposal as drones target Gulf nations",
      "publisher": "Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-attack-may-10-2026-f8812db41837336d816efaea7bc1c44a",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "AP report describing drone incidents involving Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, and the fragile Iran-war ceasefire."
    },
    {
      "id": "ap-uae-evacuation-flights-2026",
      "label": "Limited flights from UAE begin as governments seek to extract citizens",
      "publisher": "Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/93f2559eb57f05989fb1de8fda7f21ec",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "AP report on evacuation flights, commercial-air disruption, airspace closures, and stranded travelers after the Iran war spread across the Gulf."
    },
    {
      "id": "reuters-gulf-missile-attacks-2026",
      "label": "Iranian missiles shake Gulf cities after US, Israeli strikes on Iran",
      "publisher": "Reuters via GMA News",
      "url": "https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/world/978251/iran-fires-missiles-at-gulf-arab-states-one-killed-in-abu-dhabi/story/",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "Reuters-distributed report on Iranian missile attacks affecting Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and other Gulf cities."
    },
    {
      "id": "reuters-uae-air-defences-2026",
      "label": "UAE says air defences dealing with missile and drone attacks from Iran",
      "publisher": "Reuters via KELO-AM",
      "url": "https://kelo.com/2026/05/05/uae-says-air-defences-dealing-with-missile-and-drone-attacks-from-iran/",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "Reuters-distributed report on UAE air defenses responding to renewed missile and drone attacks from Iran in May 2026."
    },
    {
      "id": "reuters-dubai-airport-strike-2026",
      "label": "Four injured as Dubai airport sustains damage from Iranian missile strike",
      "publisher": "Reuters via ThePrint",
      "url": "https://theprint.in/world/four-injured-as-dubai-airport-sustains-damage-from-iranian-missile-strike/2867015/",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "Reuters-distributed report on damage at Dubai International Airport, injuries, and suspended flights after Iranian attacks across Gulf states."
    },
    {
      "id": "reuters-turkey-nato-missile-2026",
      "label": "Turkey says NATO defenses down missile from Iran",
      "publisher": "Reuters via GMA News",
      "url": "https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/world/981998/turkey-says-nato-defenses-down-missile-from-iran/story/",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "Reuters-distributed report on Turkey saying NATO defenses intercepted an Iranian missile that entered Turkish airspace."
    },
    {
      "id": "acled-conflict-index-2025",
      "label": "ACLED Conflict Index",
      "publisher": "ACLED",
      "url": "https://acleddata.com/series/acled-conflict-index",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "Event-based conflict index used for countries where gang violence is treated as a major driver of severe conflict."
    },
    {
      "id": "global-organized-crime-index-2025",
      "label": "Global Organized Crime Index 2025",
      "publisher": "Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime",
      "url": "https://globalinitiative.net/analysis/the-global-organized-crime-index-2025/",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "Country-level organized-crime criminality and resilience index used to identify organized-crime exposure."
    },
    {
      "id": "insight-crime-mexico-profile",
      "label": "Mexico profile",
      "publisher": "InSight Crime",
      "url": "https://insightcrime.org/mexico-organized-crime-news/mexico/",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "Organized-crime profile covering cartel fragmentation, criminal governance, and drug-trafficking violence."
    },
    {
      "id": "insight-crime-ecuador-profile",
      "label": "Ecuador profile",
      "publisher": "InSight Crime",
      "url": "https://insightcrime.org/ecuador-organized-crime-news/ecuador-profile/",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "Organized-crime profile covering prison mafias, drug-trafficking corridors, and gang violence."
    },
    {
      "id": "insight-crime-colombia-profile",
      "label": "Colombia profile",
      "publisher": "InSight Crime",
      "url": "https://insightcrime.org/colombia-organized-crime-news/colombia/",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "Organized-crime profile covering armed criminal groups, drug trafficking, illegal mining, extortion, and dissident factions."
    },
    {
      "id": "insight-crime-brazil-profile",
      "label": "Brazil profile",
      "publisher": "InSight Crime",
      "url": "https://insightcrime.org/brazil-organized-crime-news/brazil-profile/",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "Organized-crime profile covering PCC, Red Command, militias, trafficking, and violent territorial control."
    },
    {
      "id": "insight-crime-honduras-profile",
      "label": "Honduras profile",
      "publisher": "InSight Crime",
      "url": "https://insightcrime.org/honduras-organized-crime-news/honduras/",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "Organized-crime profile covering trafficking networks, gangs, corruption, and political-criminal protection."
    },
    {
      "id": "insight-crime-guatemala-profile",
      "label": "Guatemala profile",
      "publisher": "InSight Crime",
      "url": "https://insightcrime.org/guatemala-organized-crime-news/guatemala/",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "Organized-crime profile covering trafficking logistics, corruption networks, gangs, extortion, and illicit economies."
    },
    {
      "id": "global-ocindex-jamaica-2025",
      "label": "Jamaica OC Index profile 2025",
      "publisher": "Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime",
      "url": "https://ocindex.net/assets/downloads/2025/english/ocindex_profile_jamaica_2025.pdf",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "Country profile for organized-crime criminality and resilience indicators in Jamaica."
    },
    {
      "id": "africa-ocindex-south-africa-2025",
      "label": "South Africa OC Index profile 2025",
      "publisher": "Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime / ENACT",
      "url": "https://africa.ocindex.net/assets/downloads/2025/english/ocindex_summary_south_africa.pdf",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "Country profile for organized-crime criminality and resilience indicators in South Africa."
    }
  ],
  "countries": [
    {
      "country": "Ukraine",
      "iso": "UA",
      "mapName": "Ukraine",
      "region": "Europe",
      "statusValue": "war-zone",
      "statusLabel": "war zone",
      "kindLabel": "interstate",
      "conflict": "Russia-Ukraine war",
      "parties": "Ukraine vs Russian forces and proxy formations.",
      "alliances": "Backed by the EU, NATO states, the United States, the G7, and other partners.",
      "note": "The main battlefield of Russia's full-scale invasion: occupied territory, front lines, drone and missile attacks, and civilian infrastructure strikes.",
      "severity": 100,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-global-conflict-tracker", "cfr-conflicts-watch-2026", "rulac-conflicts", "irc-watchlist-2026"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Russia",
      "iso": "",
      "mapName": "Russian Federation",
      "region": "Europe/Asia",
      "statusValue": "belligerent",
      "statusLabel": "belligerent",
      "kindLabel": "interstate",
      "conflict": "Russia-Ukraine war",
      "parties": "Russian state forces vs Ukraine.",
      "alliances": "Belarus support; reported military supply or manpower links with Iran and North Korea; confrontation with Ukraine's Western backers.",
      "note": "Russia is the main aggressor and belligerent, but the dense ground war is primarily on Ukrainian territory, so it is filled lighter than Ukraine.",
      "severity": 48,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-global-conflict-tracker", "cfr-conflicts-watch-2026", "rulac-conflicts"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Iran",
      "iso": "IR",
      "mapName": "Iran",
      "region": "Middle East",
      "statusValue": "war-zone",
      "statusLabel": "war zone",
      "kindLabel": "regional",
      "conflict": "Iran-Israel-United States war",
      "parties": "Iran vs Israel and the United States, with Gulf spillover.",
      "alliances": "Iran-aligned network including Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi/Syrian militias; diplomatic and economic ties with China and Russia.",
      "note": "Large-scale strikes in Iran and Iranian retaliation against Israel, U.S. forces, Gulf infrastructure, and shipping keep Iran in the war-zone bucket.",
      "severity": 92,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-global-conflict-tracker", "cfr-conflicts-watch-2026", "cfr-iran-network", "rulac-conflicts"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Israel",
      "iso": "IL",
      "mapName": "Israel",
      "region": "Middle East",
      "statusValue": "belligerent",
      "statusLabel": "belligerent",
      "kindLabel": "regional",
      "conflict": "Iran war, Israel-Palestine, and Hezbollah fronts",
      "parties": "Israel vs Iran, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, and Houthi-linked missile fire.",
      "alliances": "United States security backing; Western partners; regional normalization and security relationships.",
      "note": "Israel is both an active belligerent and a target across the Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen-linked fronts.",
      "severity": 82,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-global-conflict-tracker", "cfr-conflicts-watch-2026", "cfr-iran-network", "rulac-conflicts"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Palestine",
      "iso": "PS",
      "mapName": "Palestine",
      "region": "Middle East",
      "statusValue": "war-zone",
      "statusLabel": "war zone",
      "kindLabel": "regional",
      "conflict": "Israel-Palestine / Gaza war",
      "parties": "Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Israel, and Palestinian civilians under military operations.",
      "alliances": "Iran-linked support to armed factions; Arab and international diplomatic support varies by actor.",
      "note": "Gaza and the West Bank remain active theatres with a severe humanitarian crisis and recurring escalatory risk.",
      "severity": 94,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-global-conflict-tracker", "irc-watchlist-2026", "cfr-iran-network", "rulac-conflicts"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Lebanon",
      "iso": "LB",
      "mapName": "Lebanon",
      "region": "Middle East",
      "statusValue": "war-zone",
      "statusLabel": "war zone",
      "kindLabel": "regional",
      "conflict": "Israel-Hezbollah war",
      "parties": "Hezbollah and allied factions vs Israel; the Lebanese state and civilians are deeply affected.",
      "alliances": "Hezbollah is aligned with Iran; UNIFIL and the Lebanese army are separate actors trying to contain escalation.",
      "note": "Southern Lebanon and Beirut have seen strikes, ground operations, displacement, and cross-border rocket fire.",
      "severity": 84,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-global-conflict-tracker", "irc-watchlist-2026", "cfr-iran-network", "rulac-conflicts"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Syria",
      "iso": "SY",
      "mapName": "Syria",
      "region": "Middle East",
      "statusValue": "war-zone",
      "statusLabel": "war zone",
      "kindLabel": "civil / regional",
      "conflict": "Syrian conflict, ISIS resurgence, and foreign strikes",
      "parties": "Syrian government/security forces, SDF, ISIS cells, Turkish operations, Israeli strikes, and Iran-linked actors.",
      "alliances": "Turkey, Israel, the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition, and Iran-linked networks all shape the theatre.",
      "note": "Syria remains a fragmented armed-conflict space, even after major political change, with ISIS attacks and foreign interventions continuing.",
      "severity": 78,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-global-conflict-tracker", "irc-watchlist-2026", "cfr-iran-network", "rulac-conflicts"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Yemen",
      "iso": "YE",
      "mapName": "Yemen",
      "region": "Middle East",
      "statusValue": "war-zone",
      "statusLabel": "war zone",
      "kindLabel": "civil / regional",
      "conflict": "Yemen civil war and Red Sea conflict",
      "parties": "Houthis, internationally recognized government forces, the STC, AQAP, and regional/naval actors.",
      "alliances": "Houthis aligned with Iran; Saudi and UAE influence; U.S.-led maritime and Israel-linked retaliation dynamics.",
      "note": "Ground fighting is lower than peak-war years, but Houthi Red Sea attacks and regional missile exchanges keep Yemen in the active-conflict set.",
      "severity": 72,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-global-conflict-tracker", "irc-watchlist-2026", "cfr-iran-network", "rulac-conflicts"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Iraq",
      "iso": "IQ",
      "mapName": "Iraq",
      "region": "Middle East",
      "statusValue": "hostilities",
      "statusLabel": "hostilities",
      "kindLabel": "insurgency",
      "conflict": "Regional militia activity and ISIS remnants",
      "parties": "Iraqi state forces, Iran-linked militias, ISIS remnants, and U.S. forces.",
      "alliances": "Baghdad, U.S. advisory presence, and Iran-linked armed groups overlap uneasily.",
      "note": "Not a main 2026 battlefield, but still exposed to militia activity, ISIS remnants, and spillover from the Iran/Syria theatre.",
      "severity": 45,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-global-conflict-tracker", "cfr-iran-network", "rulac-conflicts"]
    },
    {
      "country": "United Arab Emirates",
      "iso": "AE",
      "mapName": "United Arab Emirates",
      "region": "Middle East",
      "statusValue": "hostilities",
      "statusLabel": "hostilities",
      "kindLabel": "regional spillover / missile-drone attacks",
      "conflict": "Iran war Gulf spillover",
      "parties": "UAE air defenses, Iranian missiles and drones, Gulf shipping, and U.S.-led maritime forces.",
      "alliances": "U.S.-aligned Gulf security partner; GCC member; hosts major international aviation, finance, logistics, and expatriate networks.",
      "note": "Updated because AP and Reuters report UAE missile/drone attacks, air-defense engagements, Fujairah oil-facility damage, Dubai airport damage, shelter alerts, and flight disruption. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are therefore no longer treated as uninvolved, even though the UAE is not the main battlefield.",
      "severity": 62,
      "sourceIds": ["ap-uae-hormuz-attack-2026", "ap-gulf-drones-ceasefire-2026", "ap-uae-evacuation-flights-2026", "reuters-gulf-missile-attacks-2026", "reuters-uae-air-defences-2026", "reuters-dubai-airport-strike-2026", "cfr-iran-network"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Qatar",
      "iso": "QA",
      "mapName": "Qatar",
      "region": "Middle East",
      "statusValue": "hostilities",
      "statusLabel": "hostilities",
      "kindLabel": "regional spillover / missile-drone attacks",
      "conflict": "Iran war Gulf spillover",
      "parties": "Qatari security authorities, U.S. forces at Al Udeid, Gulf shipping, and Iranian missile/drone spillover.",
      "alliances": "U.S.-aligned Gulf security partner; GCC member; hosts Al Udeid Air Base and works as a regional diplomatic mediator.",
      "note": "Reuters reported Iranian missiles intercepted over Qatar in the broader Gulf barrage, while AP reported a drone igniting a fire on a ship off Qatar during renewed Gulf incidents.",
      "severity": 52,
      "sourceIds": ["ap-gulf-drones-ceasefire-2026", "ap-uae-evacuation-flights-2026", "reuters-gulf-missile-attacks-2026", "cfr-iran-network"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Kuwait",
      "iso": "KW",
      "mapName": "Kuwait",
      "region": "Middle East",
      "statusValue": "hostilities",
      "statusLabel": "hostilities",
      "kindLabel": "regional spillover / missile-drone attacks",
      "conflict": "Iran war Gulf spillover",
      "parties": "Kuwaiti air defenses/security authorities, U.S. military presence, Gulf infrastructure, and Iranian missile/drone spillover.",
      "alliances": "U.S.-aligned Gulf security partner; GCC member; hosts U.S. forces and sits near the Iraq-Iran-Gulf theatre.",
      "note": "Reuters reported Kuwait intercepting Iranian missiles in the Gulf barrage, and AP later reported drones entering Kuwaiti airspace during renewed ceasefire stress.",
      "severity": 50,
      "sourceIds": ["ap-gulf-drones-ceasefire-2026", "ap-uae-evacuation-flights-2026", "reuters-gulf-missile-attacks-2026", "cfr-iran-network"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Bahrain",
      "iso": "BH",
      "mapName": "Bahrain",
      "region": "Middle East",
      "statusValue": "hostilities",
      "statusLabel": "hostilities",
      "kindLabel": "regional spillover / missile-drone attacks",
      "conflict": "Iran war Gulf spillover",
      "parties": "Bahraini air defenses/security authorities, U.S. Fifth Fleet facilities, Gulf infrastructure, and Iranian missile/drone spillover.",
      "alliances": "U.S.-aligned Gulf security partner; GCC member; hosts the U.S. Fifth Fleet.",
      "note": "Included because Reuters reported Bahrain among Gulf states intercepting Iranian missiles, with a U.S. military-linked site affected in the wider barrage.",
      "severity": 48,
      "sourceIds": ["ap-uae-evacuation-flights-2026", "reuters-gulf-missile-attacks-2026", "cfr-iran-network"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Turkey",
      "iso": "TR",
      "mapName": "Turkey",
      "region": "Middle East/Europe",
      "statusValue": "hostilities",
      "statusLabel": "hostilities",
      "kindLabel": "regional exposure / NATO intercept",
      "conflict": "Iran war regional spillover",
      "parties": "Turkey, NATO air defenses, Iranian missile traffic, and regional diplomatic actors.",
      "alliances": "NATO member; maintains its own regional posture and has tried to avoid being pulled into the Iran war.",
      "note": "Turkey is not treated as a main battlefield or declared belligerent here. It is included as lower-intensity hostilities/exposure because Reuters reported repeated Iranian missiles entering Turkish airspace and being shot down by NATO defenses.",
      "severity": 36,
      "sourceIds": ["reuters-turkey-nato-missile-2026", "cfr-conflicts-watch-2026"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Sudan",
      "iso": "SD",
      "mapName": "Sudan",
      "region": "Africa",
      "statusValue": "war-zone",
      "statusLabel": "war zone",
      "kindLabel": "civil war",
      "conflict": "Sudan civil war",
      "parties": "Sudanese Armed Forces vs Rapid Support Forces.",
      "alliances": "Regional and international actors continue to fund, arm, or court both sides; arms-flow claims are often contested.",
      "note": "One of the world's major active wars, with Darfur, Kordofan, Khartoum-linked fronts, mass displacement, famine risk, and atrocity warnings.",
      "severity": 98,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-global-conflict-tracker", "cfr-conflicts-watch-2026", "irc-watchlist-2026", "rulac-conflicts"]
    },
    {
      "country": "South Sudan",
      "iso": "SS",
      "mapName": "South Sudan",
      "region": "Africa",
      "statusValue": "hostilities",
      "statusLabel": "hostilities",
      "kindLabel": "civil / factional",
      "conflict": "South Sudan instability",
      "parties": "Government forces, opposition factions, intercommunal militias, and rebel groups.",
      "alliances": "UNMISS, IGAD, Uganda, Sudan, and Ethiopia all matter to the security picture.",
      "note": "The formal civil war ended, but armed violence, rebel clashes, delayed elections, and Sudan spillover keep the country in the active-hostilities bucket.",
      "severity": 65,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-global-conflict-tracker", "irc-watchlist-2026", "rulac-conflicts"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Myanmar",
      "iso": "MM",
      "mapName": "Myanmar",
      "region": "Asia",
      "statusValue": "war-zone",
      "statusLabel": "war zone",
      "kindLabel": "civil war",
      "conflict": "Myanmar civil war",
      "parties": "Military junta vs the NUG/PDF and ethnic armed organizations.",
      "alliances": "Resistance alliances vary by theatre; China and ASEAN manage border and diplomatic pressure; Russia and China remain important arms/political relationships.",
      "note": "A nationwide civil war with shifting front lines, junta airpower, ethnic armed offensives, and mass displacement.",
      "severity": 90,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-global-conflict-tracker", "cfr-conflicts-watch-2026", "rulac-conflicts"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Democratic Republic of the Congo",
      "iso": "CD",
      "mapName": "Democratic Republic of the Congo",
      "region": "Africa",
      "statusValue": "war-zone",
      "statusLabel": "war zone",
      "kindLabel": "civil / regional",
      "conflict": "Eastern DRC conflict",
      "parties": "FARDC and allied Wazalendo fighters vs M23/AFC and many other armed groups.",
      "alliances": "MONUSCO, SADC, Burundi, and regional diplomacy; Rwanda is widely accused of backing M23 and denies or disputes many allegations.",
      "note": "Eastern Congo remains a major armed-conflict zone, especially around North and South Kivu.",
      "severity": 86,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-global-conflict-tracker", "irc-watchlist-2026", "rulac-conflicts"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Somalia",
      "iso": "SO",
      "mapName": "Somalia",
      "region": "Africa",
      "statusValue": "war-zone",
      "statusLabel": "war zone",
      "kindLabel": "insurgency",
      "conflict": "Al-Shabaab insurgency",
      "parties": "Somali federal forces and AU mission forces vs Al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia.",
      "alliances": "African Union mission, Turkey, the United States, Ethiopia, Kenya, and other regional partners.",
      "note": "Persistent insurgency and terrorism, with territorial pressure and regional maritime/Houthi links watched closely.",
      "severity": 75,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-global-conflict-tracker", "irc-watchlist-2026", "rulac-conflicts"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Mali",
      "iso": "ML",
      "mapName": "Mali",
      "region": "Africa",
      "statusValue": "war-zone",
      "statusLabel": "war zone",
      "kindLabel": "insurgency",
      "conflict": "Sahel insurgency",
      "parties": "Malian junta and aligned forces vs JNIM, Islamic State Sahel, and separatist factions.",
      "alliances": "Alliance of Sahel States with Burkina Faso and Niger; Russian/Africa Corps support.",
      "note": "One of the core Sahel conflict theatres, with jihadist violence, junta rule, and shrinking international peacekeeping space.",
      "severity": 72,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-global-conflict-tracker", "rulac-conflicts"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Burkina Faso",
      "iso": "BF",
      "mapName": "Burkina Faso",
      "region": "Africa",
      "statusValue": "war-zone",
      "statusLabel": "war zone",
      "kindLabel": "insurgency",
      "conflict": "Sahel insurgency",
      "parties": "Burkinabe junta and security auxiliaries vs JNIM and Islamic State Sahel.",
      "alliances": "Alliance of Sahel States; growing Russian security links.",
      "note": "Large areas remain exposed to insurgent control, massacres, displacement, and state counterinsurgency.",
      "severity": 70,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-global-conflict-tracker", "rulac-conflicts"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Niger",
      "iso": "NE",
      "mapName": "Niger",
      "region": "Africa",
      "statusValue": "hostilities",
      "statusLabel": "hostilities",
      "kindLabel": "insurgency",
      "conflict": "Sahel and Lake Chad basin insurgencies",
      "parties": "Nigerien junta forces vs jihadist groups and cross-border insurgent networks.",
      "alliances": "Alliance of Sahel States; regional counterterrorism relationships are being rewritten after the coup.",
      "note": "Active armed violence continues, but current intensity is shown below Mali and Burkina Faso.",
      "severity": 62,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-global-conflict-tracker", "irc-watchlist-2026", "rulac-conflicts"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Nigeria",
      "iso": "NG",
      "mapName": "Nigeria",
      "region": "Africa",
      "statusValue": "hostilities",
      "statusLabel": "hostilities",
      "kindLabel": "insurgency",
      "conflict": "Boko Haram, ISWAP, and armed-bandit violence",
      "parties": "Nigerian state forces vs ISWAP, Boko Haram factions, separatists, and armed bandit networks.",
      "alliances": "Multinational Joint Task Force and Lake Chad regional partners.",
      "note": "A broad armed-violence landscape rather than one unified war, with insurgency and banditry concentrated by region.",
      "severity": 64,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-global-conflict-tracker", "irc-watchlist-2026", "rulac-conflicts"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Ethiopia",
      "iso": "ET",
      "mapName": "Ethiopia",
      "region": "Africa",
      "statusValue": "hostilities",
      "statusLabel": "hostilities",
      "kindLabel": "civil / regional",
      "conflict": "Localized Ethiopian conflicts and Horn escalation risk",
      "parties": "Federal and regional forces, Fano, OLA, Tigray-linked actors, and border-region armed groups.",
      "alliances": "Horn of Africa rivalries with Eritrea, Sudan, and Somalia shape the risk environment.",
      "note": "Not a single national front like Sudan, but active localized conflict and humanitarian stress remain significant.",
      "severity": 58,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-global-conflict-tracker", "irc-watchlist-2026", "rulac-conflicts"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Haiti",
      "iso": "HT",
      "mapName": "Haiti",
      "region": "Americas",
      "statusValue": "mafia",
      "statusLabel": "mafia conflict",
      "kindLabel": "criminal armed violence",
      "conflict": "Gang conflict and state collapse",
      "parties": "Haitian police and transitional authorities vs gang coalitions.",
      "alliances": "Kenya-led Multinational Security Support mission, U.S. and UN backing.",
      "note": "Armed gang control, displacement, and attacks on civilians make Haiti a conflict-like security crisis even though it is not an interstate war.",
      "severity": 63,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-global-conflict-tracker", "irc-watchlist-2026", "acled-conflict-index-2025", "global-organized-crime-index-2025"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Mexico",
      "iso": "MX",
      "mapName": "Mexico",
      "region": "Americas",
      "statusValue": "mafia",
      "statusLabel": "mafia conflict",
      "kindLabel": "mafia-based / organized crime",
      "conflict": "Cartel war and criminal-governance violence",
      "parties": "Cartels, splinter groups, local gangs, Mexican security forces, and civilians.",
      "alliances": "No formal alliance; cartel networks operate through trafficking, extortion, corruption, and territorial control.",
      "note": "Added to the mafia-based layer because cartel conflict, extortion, disappearances, and territorial contests create conflict-like armed violence in several states.",
      "severity": 74,
      "sourceIds": ["acled-conflict-index-2025", "global-organized-crime-index-2025", "insight-crime-mexico-profile"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Ecuador",
      "iso": "EC",
      "mapName": "Ecuador",
      "region": "Americas",
      "statusValue": "mafia",
      "statusLabel": "mafia conflict",
      "kindLabel": "mafia-based / organized crime",
      "conflict": "Gang war and prison-linked organized-crime conflict",
      "parties": "Los Choneros, Los Lobos, splinter gangs, prison networks, security forces, and civilians.",
      "alliances": "Local groups connect with Mexican, Colombian, European, and Albanian trafficking networks rather than a formal alliance bloc.",
      "note": "Prison mafias, street gangs, port trafficking, assassinations, and civilian-targeting violence have made Ecuador one of the clearest organized-crime conflict cases.",
      "severity": 70,
      "sourceIds": ["acled-conflict-index-2025", "global-organized-crime-index-2025", "insight-crime-ecuador-profile"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Colombia",
      "iso": "CO",
      "mapName": "Colombia",
      "region": "Americas",
      "statusValue": "mafia",
      "statusLabel": "mafia conflict",
      "kindLabel": "mafia-based / organized crime",
      "conflict": "Armed-group and cocaine-trafficking violence",
      "parties": "Clan del Golfo / AGC, dissident FARC factions, ELN-linked actors, local criminal networks, state forces, and civilians.",
      "alliances": "Fragmented armed groups connect with trafficking, illegal mining, extortion, and cross-border criminal economies.",
      "note": "Overlaps insurgency and organized crime; included because armed criminal groups and ex-insurgent mafia structures contest territory and illicit economies.",
      "severity": 58,
      "sourceIds": ["global-organized-crime-index-2025", "insight-crime-colombia-profile"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Brazil",
      "iso": "BR",
      "mapName": "Brazil",
      "region": "Americas",
      "statusValue": "mafia",
      "statusLabel": "mafia conflict",
      "kindLabel": "mafia-based / organized crime",
      "conflict": "Organized-crime and militia violence",
      "parties": "PCC, Red Command, militias, local gangs, police, and civilians.",
      "alliances": "Criminal alliances and truces shift around prison networks, ports, trafficking corridors, extortion, and territorial control.",
      "note": "ACLED ranks Brazil among severe gang-violence conflict cases; organized criminal groups and militias produce persistent armed violence in multiple regions.",
      "severity": 56,
      "sourceIds": ["acled-conflict-index-2025", "global-organized-crime-index-2025", "insight-crime-brazil-profile"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Honduras",
      "iso": "HN",
      "mapName": "Honduras",
      "region": "Americas",
      "statusValue": "mafia",
      "statusLabel": "mafia conflict",
      "kindLabel": "mafia-based / organized crime",
      "conflict": "Gang and trafficking-network violence",
      "parties": "MS13, Barrio 18, local trafficking networks, security forces, corrupt officials, and civilians.",
      "alliances": "Criminal links run through cocaine transit routes, protection networks, gangs, and political-criminal corruption.",
      "note": "Included as a mafia-based conflict exposure case because trafficking corridors, gangs, and corruption sustain armed coercion and extortion.",
      "severity": 46,
      "sourceIds": ["global-organized-crime-index-2025", "insight-crime-honduras-profile"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Guatemala",
      "iso": "GT",
      "mapName": "Guatemala",
      "region": "Americas",
      "statusValue": "mafia",
      "statusLabel": "mafia conflict",
      "kindLabel": "mafia-based / organized crime",
      "conflict": "Gang, extortion, and trafficking-network violence",
      "parties": "Local trafficking networks, street gangs, corrupt state-embedded actors, security forces, and civilians.",
      "alliances": "Criminal networks connect maritime and land routes, extortion economies, corruption networks, and cross-border trafficking.",
      "note": "Included for persistent organized-crime coercion, extortion, and trafficking violence rather than a conventional war front.",
      "severity": 42,
      "sourceIds": ["global-organized-crime-index-2025", "insight-crime-guatemala-profile"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Jamaica",
      "iso": "JM",
      "mapName": "Jamaica",
      "region": "Americas",
      "statusValue": "mafia",
      "statusLabel": "mafia conflict",
      "kindLabel": "mafia-based / organized crime",
      "conflict": "Gang violence and trafficking networks",
      "parties": "Local gangs, trafficking networks, security forces, and civilians.",
      "alliances": "Criminal networks are tied to neighborhood control, extortion, contract killing, weapons flows, and overseas trafficking links.",
      "note": "Included as a lower-severity mafia-based layer entry because gang conflict and organized criminal violence remain a major security stressor.",
      "severity": 38,
      "sourceIds": ["global-organized-crime-index-2025", "global-ocindex-jamaica-2025"]
    },
    {
      "country": "South Africa",
      "iso": "ZA",
      "mapName": "South Africa",
      "region": "Africa",
      "statusValue": "mafia",
      "statusLabel": "mafia conflict",
      "kindLabel": "mafia-based / organized crime",
      "conflict": "Gang, extortion, and organized-crime violence",
      "parties": "Gang networks, extortion groups, trafficking networks, illegal-mining groups, security forces, and civilians.",
      "alliances": "Criminal networks operate through ports, neighborhoods, prisons, illicit mining, extortion, drug routes, and corruption.",
      "note": "Included as a lower-severity organized-crime conflict exposure case, especially for persistent gang, extortion, and trafficking-linked violence.",
      "severity": 36,
      "sourceIds": ["global-organized-crime-index-2025", "africa-ocindex-south-africa-2025"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Afghanistan",
      "iso": "AF",
      "mapName": "Afghanistan",
      "region": "Asia",
      "statusValue": "hostilities",
      "statusLabel": "hostilities",
      "kindLabel": "insurgency",
      "conflict": "IS-K insurgency and Pakistan border clashes",
      "parties": "Taliban authorities vs IS-K, anti-Taliban groups, and border clashes involving Pakistan.",
      "alliances": "No stable treaty bloc; Pakistan, China, Gulf states, and Central Asian neighbors shape diplomacy.",
      "note": "Lower-intensity than the largest wars, but active insurgent violence and cross-border fire persist.",
      "severity": 50,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-global-conflict-tracker", "irc-watchlist-2026", "rulac-conflicts"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Pakistan",
      "iso": "PK",
      "mapName": "Pakistan",
      "region": "Asia",
      "statusValue": "hostilities",
      "statusLabel": "hostilities",
      "kindLabel": "interstate / insurgency",
      "conflict": "India-Pakistan escalation and internal insurgencies",
      "parties": "Pakistani state forces vs India during escalations, plus TTP/BLA and other militant groups.",
      "alliances": "China is Pakistan's key strategic partner; Gulf and U.S. relationships remain relevant; nuclear deterrence shapes India risk.",
      "note": "Included for India-Pakistan escalation risk alongside persistent internal insurgencies.",
      "severity": 60,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-conflicts-watch-2026", "rulac-conflicts"]
    },
    {
      "country": "India",
      "iso": "IN",
      "mapName": "India",
      "region": "Asia",
      "statusValue": "flashpoint",
      "statusLabel": "flashpoint",
      "kindLabel": "interstate",
      "conflict": "India-Pakistan / Kashmir escalation risk",
      "parties": "Indian state forces vs Pakistan-linked militants and Pakistani forces during border escalations.",
      "alliances": "Strategic autonomy with growing U.S., Quad, and European ties; nuclear deterrence with Pakistan.",
      "note": "Included as a flashpoint in the underlying dataset, but not filled in the default current-wars mode.",
      "severity": 52,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-conflicts-watch-2026", "rulac-conflicts"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Taiwan",
      "iso": "TW",
      "mapName": "Taiwan",
      "region": "Asia",
      "statusValue": "flashpoint",
      "statusLabel": "flashpoint",
      "kindLabel": "interstate risk",
      "conflict": "Taiwan Strait crisis risk",
      "parties": "Taiwan under military, economic, and political pressure from the People's Republic of China.",
      "alliances": "U.S. security commitment and strategic ambiguity; Japan, the Philippines, and other regional partners matter.",
      "note": "Not at war in this scaffold; visible as part of alignment overlays and searchable context.",
      "severity": 45,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-conflicts-watch-2026"]
    },
    {
      "country": "United States",
      "iso": "",
      "mapName": "United States",
      "region": "Americas",
      "statusValue": "belligerent",
      "statusLabel": "belligerent",
      "kindLabel": "regional",
      "conflict": "Iran war, Yemen/Red Sea, and global expeditionary operations",
      "parties": "U.S. forces vs Iran-linked and jihadist targets in several theatres.",
      "alliances": "NATO; Israel ally; Gulf security partners; global basing network.",
      "note": "A major outside belligerent and backer. The fill stays light because the active wars are not happening on U.S. territory.",
      "severity": 44,
      "sourceIds": ["cfr-global-conflict-tracker", "cfr-conflicts-watch-2026", "cfr-iran-network"]
    }
  ]
}