{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "updated": "2026-05-10",
  "methodology": "Nuclear arsenals use Federation of American Scientists 2026 inventory estimates. The slider model is an educational heuristic: it linearly interpolates between published soot/death scenario points and assigns country survivability thresholds by broad latitude band, with Northern Hemisphere countries hit harder than Southern Hemisphere countries. The compiled page then applies soft country modifiers from the local food-security and alliance/alignment datasets: severe food-import exposure and close U.S./China/Russia alignment boost the risk score gradually without replacing the base survivability curve. It is not a casualty forecast.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "fas-world-nuclear-forces-2026",
      "label": "Status of World Nuclear Forces, 2026",
      "publisher": "Federation of American Scientists",
      "url": "https://fas.org/initiative/status-world-nuclear-forces/",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "FAS estimates nine countries possessed roughly 12,187 nuclear warheads at the beginning of 2026, with country-level inventory, stockpile, and deployed estimates."
    },
    {
      "id": "nature-food-nuclear-famine-2022",
      "label": "Global food insecurity and famine from nuclear war soot injection",
      "publisher": "Nature Food",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "Peer-reviewed study estimating crop, fishery, and famine impacts from 5 Tg to 150 Tg soot scenarios."
    },
    {
      "id": "ippnw-nuclear-famine-2022",
      "label": "Nuclear Famine",
      "publisher": "International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War",
      "url": "https://www.ippnw.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Nuclear-Famine-2022.pdf",
      "accessed": "2026-05-10",
      "note": "Report summarizing Xia et al. scenario table, including weapons detonated, soot, direct fatalities, and famine deaths."
    }
  ],
  "model": {
    "maxLaunched": 12187,
    "globalTotalInventory": 12187,
    "fullExchangeReferenceWarheads": 4400,
    "maxSootTg": 150,
    "sourceIds": ["fas-world-nuclear-forces-2026", "nature-food-nuclear-famine-2022", "ippnw-nuclear-famine-2022"],
    "scenarioPoints": [
      {
        "launched": 0,
        "sootTg": 0,
        "temperatureDropC": 0,
        "directDeathsMillions": 0,
        "famineDeathsMillions": 0,
        "cropCaloriesReductionPct": 0,
        "note": "No weapons launched."
      },
      {
        "launched": 100,
        "sootTg": 5,
        "temperatureDropC": 1.2,
        "directDeathsMillions": 27,
        "famineDeathsMillions": 260,
        "cropCaloriesReductionPct": 7,
        "note": "IPPNW/Nature Food small regional-war case: 100 weapons at 15 kt."
      },
      {
        "launched": 250,
        "sootTg": 27,
        "temperatureDropC": 3.2,
        "directDeathsMillions": 97,
        "famineDeathsMillions": 1400,
        "cropCaloriesReductionPct": 35,
        "note": "Middle India-Pakistan scenario in IPPNW table: 250 weapons at 50 kt."
      },
      {
        "launched": 500,
        "sootTg": 47,
        "temperatureDropC": 4.8,
        "directDeathsMillions": 164,
        "famineDeathsMillions": 2500,
        "cropCaloriesReductionPct": 50,
        "note": "Largest India-Pakistan scenario in IPPNW table: 500 weapons at 100 kt."
      },
      {
        "launched": 4400,
        "sootTg": 150,
        "temperatureDropC": 7.8,
        "directDeathsMillions": 360,
        "famineDeathsMillions": 5300,
        "cropCaloriesReductionPct": 90,
        "note": "Large U.S.-Russia / global-nuclear-winter reference case."
      },
      {
        "launched": 12187,
        "sootTg": 150,
        "temperatureDropC": 8.0,
        "directDeathsMillions": 400,
        "famineDeathsMillions": 5600,
        "cropCaloriesReductionPct": 92,
        "note": "Slider cap at estimated total global inventory; soot impacts are capped at the 150 Tg literature scenario."
      }
    ],
    "riskBands": [
      {
        "id": "high-north",
        "label": "High Northern Hemisphere",
        "thresholdWarheads": 450,
        "survivabilityNote": "Lowest threshold because high-latitude Northern Hemisphere agriculture faces the strongest modeled calorie reductions.",
        "sourceIds": ["nature-food-nuclear-famine-2022"]
      },
      {
        "id": "north",
        "label": "Northern Hemisphere",
        "thresholdWarheads": 800,
        "survivabilityNote": "Northern mid-latitude countries face severe crop and infrastructure disruption early in the curve.",
        "sourceIds": ["nature-food-nuclear-famine-2022"]
      },
      {
        "id": "tropics",
        "label": "Tropical / lower-latitude",
        "thresholdWarheads": 1500,
        "survivabilityNote": "Lower-latitude crop reductions are less severe than high northern latitudes, but trade and fuel disruption remain severe.",
        "sourceIds": ["nature-food-nuclear-famine-2022"]
      },
      {
        "id": "south",
        "label": "Southern Hemisphere",
        "thresholdWarheads": 2800,
        "survivabilityNote": "Southern Hemisphere countries are modeled as relatively less exposed to nuclear-winter crop collapse, though global trade collapse still matters.",
        "sourceIds": ["nature-food-nuclear-famine-2022"]
      },
      {
        "id": "remote-south",
        "label": "Remote Southern Hemisphere",
        "thresholdWarheads": 4200,
        "survivabilityNote": "Most resilient band for isolated food-exporting Southern Hemisphere countries.",
        "sourceIds": ["nature-food-nuclear-famine-2022"]
      }
    ]
  },
  "nuclearStates": [
    {
      "country": "Russia",
      "iso": "",
      "mapName": "Russian Federation",
      "region": "Europe/Asia",
      "totalInventory": 5420,
      "militaryStockpile": 4400,
      "deployedStrategic": 1796,
      "deployedNonstrategic": 0,
      "reserveOrNondeployed": 2604,
      "note": "Largest estimated total nuclear inventory in 2026.",
      "sourceIds": ["fas-world-nuclear-forces-2026"]
    },
    {
      "country": "United States",
      "iso": "",
      "mapName": "United States",
      "region": "Americas",
      "totalInventory": 5042,
      "militaryStockpile": 3700,
      "deployedStrategic": 1670,
      "deployedNonstrategic": 100,
      "reserveOrNondeployed": 1930,
      "note": "Second-largest estimated total nuclear inventory in 2026.",
      "sourceIds": ["fas-world-nuclear-forces-2026"]
    },
    {
      "country": "China",
      "iso": "CN",
      "mapName": "China",
      "region": "Asia",
      "totalInventory": 620,
      "militaryStockpile": 620,
      "deployedStrategic": 34,
      "deployedNonstrategic": 0,
      "reserveOrNondeployed": 586,
      "note": "FAS describes China as one of the nuclear-armed states increasing its stockpile.",
      "sourceIds": ["fas-world-nuclear-forces-2026"]
    },
    {
      "country": "France",
      "iso": "FR",
      "mapName": "France",
      "region": "Europe",
      "totalInventory": 370,
      "militaryStockpile": 290,
      "deployedStrategic": 280,
      "deployedNonstrategic": 0,
      "reserveOrNondeployed": 10,
      "note": "FAS lists France with a relatively stable nuclear inventory.",
      "sourceIds": ["fas-world-nuclear-forces-2026"]
    },
    {
      "country": "United Kingdom",
      "iso": "GB",
      "mapName": "United Kingdom",
      "region": "Europe",
      "totalInventory": 225,
      "militaryStockpile": 225,
      "deployedStrategic": 120,
      "deployedNonstrategic": 0,
      "reserveOrNondeployed": 105,
      "note": "FAS estimates the United Kingdom has 225 total warheads.",
      "sourceIds": ["fas-world-nuclear-forces-2026"]
    },
    {
      "country": "India",
      "iso": "IN",
      "mapName": "India",
      "region": "Asia",
      "totalInventory": 190,
      "militaryStockpile": 190,
      "deployedStrategic": 0,
      "deployedNonstrategic": 0,
      "reserveOrNondeployed": 178,
      "note": "FAS estimates India has 190 total warheads.",
      "sourceIds": ["fas-world-nuclear-forces-2026"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Pakistan",
      "iso": "PK",
      "mapName": "Pakistan",
      "region": "Asia",
      "totalInventory": 170,
      "militaryStockpile": 170,
      "deployedStrategic": 0,
      "deployedNonstrategic": 0,
      "reserveOrNondeployed": 170,
      "note": "FAS estimates Pakistan has 170 total warheads.",
      "sourceIds": ["fas-world-nuclear-forces-2026"]
    },
    {
      "country": "Israel",
      "iso": "IL",
      "mapName": "Israel",
      "region": "Middle East",
      "totalInventory": 90,
      "militaryStockpile": 90,
      "deployedStrategic": 0,
      "deployedNonstrategic": 0,
      "reserveOrNondeployed": 90,
      "note": "Israel does not publicly acknowledge its arsenal; FAS estimates 90 warheads.",
      "sourceIds": ["fas-world-nuclear-forces-2026"]
    },
    {
      "country": "North Korea",
      "iso": "KP",
      "mapName": "Dem. Rep. Korea",
      "region": "Asia",
      "totalInventory": 60,
      "militaryStockpile": 60,
      "deployedStrategic": 0,
      "deployedNonstrategic": 0,
      "reserveOrNondeployed": 60,
      "note": "FAS estimates North Korea has 60 total warheads.",
      "sourceIds": ["fas-world-nuclear-forces-2026"]
    }
  ]
}