Fire Year - Historical Simulator
Run FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) simulations to see the outcomes using real historical data, and see chars of profilio, withdrawal, and even spesific years over time.
The Plan
Retire for years with a portfolio of dollars.
The withdrawal strategy will use a approach.
The withdrawal will be dollars each year, adjusted for inflation.
Results
Based on the plan, 96.8% of retirement simulations were successful. That means 120 out of 124 retirement simulations were able to sustain withdrawals for the entire retirement.
Portfolio Value Over Time
This chart shows how the portfolio value changes over time. The middle line represents the median outcome, while the shaded area shows the range of possible outcomes. The bottom is the retirement years starting at year 1. This gives me insight into both the expected path and the potential variability in the portfolio's performance.
Withdrawal Analysis
This section shows how the withdrawals change over time. The middle line represents the median withdrawal amount, while the shaded area shows the range of possible withdrawal amounts. This reveals how the spending might vary based on market conditions. If the withdrawls reaches zero, or is bellow the withdrawal amount the simulation is considered a failure.
Ending Portfolio Distribution
This histogram shows the distribution of possible ending portfolio values. It reveals the likelihood of different outcomes and the range of possible final portfolio values. This is particularly useful for understanding the potential upside and downside of the strategy.
Withdrawal Distribution
This histogram shows how the withdrawals are distributed across different amounts. It displays the range of possible withdrawal amounts and how frequently different withdrawal levels occur. This is useful for planning the spending and understanding the variability in the income.
Success by Starting Year
This heat map shows how the strategy performs when starting in different years. Each cell represents a starting year, with darker gray indicating better performance and red indicating failure. This reveals how sensitive the strategy is to market timing and which historical periods were most challenging.
Click on any year cell to see detailed portfolio and withdrawal data for that specific starting year.
This tool was inspired by Edward Tufte's timles design principles. The historical data comes form Robert J Shiller's Data.